international astronautical federation
Analyzing Data Quality and Decay in Mega-Constellations: A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach
Dyreby, Katarina, Caldas, Francisco, Soares, Cláudia
In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations. Keywords: Starlink, Low Earth Orbit, Physics-Informed Machine Learning, Space Situational Awareness, Satellite Decay 1. Introduction As the number of active satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) continues to grow, ensuring their safe operation has become a complex challenge. Accurate trajectory prediction and collision avoidance are now essential, as overcrowding in LEO has significantly raised the likelihood of orbital collisions [1]. Such events not only threaten the functionality of space assets but also contribute to the accumulation of debris, increasing the risk of chain reaction scenarios like the Kessler syndrome [2].
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Advancing Solutions for the Three-Body Problem Through Physics-Informed Neural Networks
Pereira, Manuel Santos, Tripa, Luís, Lima, Nélson, Caldas, Francisco, Soares, Cláudia
First formulated by Sir Isaac Newton in his work "Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica", the concept of the Three-Body Problem was put forth as a study of the motion of the three celestial bodies within the Earth-Sun-Moon system. In a generalized definition, it seeks to predict the motion for an isolated system composed of three point masses freely interacting under Newton's law of universal attraction. This proves to be analogous to a multitude of interactions between celestial bodies, and thus, the problem finds applicability within the studies of celestial mechanics. Despite numerous attempts by renowned physicists to solve it throughout the last three centuries, no general closed-form solutions have been reached due to its inherently chaotic nature for most initial conditions. Current state-of-the-art solutions are based on two approaches, either numerical high-precision integration or machine learning-based. Notwithstanding the breakthroughs of neural networks, these present a significant limitation, which is their ignorance of any prior knowledge of the chaotic systems presented. Thus, in this work, we propose a novel method that utilizes Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). These deep neural networks are able to incorporate any prior system knowledge expressible as an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) into their learning processes as a regularizing agent. Our findings showcase that PINNs surpass current state-of-the-art machine learning methods with comparable prediction quality. Despite a better prediction quality, the usability of numerical integrators suffers due to their prohibitively high computational cost. These findings confirm that PINNs are both effective and time-efficient open-form solvers of the Three-Body Problem that capitalize on the extensive knowledge we hold of classical mechanics.
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A Machine Learning-Ready Data Processing Tool for Near Real-Time Forecasting
Dayeh, Maher A, Starkey, Michael J, Chatterjee, Subhamoy, Elliott, Heather, Hart, Samuel, Moreland, Kimberly
Space weather forecasting is critical for mitigating radiation risks in space exploration and protecting Earth-based technologies from geomagnetic disturbances. This paper presents the development of a Machine Learning (ML)- ready data processing tool for Near Real-Time (NRT) space weather forecasting. By merging data from diverse NRT sources such as solar imagery, magnetic field measurements, and energetic particle fluxes, the tool addresses key gaps in current space weather prediction capabilities. The tool processes and structures the data for machine learning models, focusing on time-series forecasting and event detection for extreme solar events. It provides users with a framework to download, process, and label data for ML applications, streamlining the workflow for improved NRT space weather forecasting and scientific research.
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A causal learning approach to in-orbit inertial parameter estimation for multi-payload deployers
Platanitis, Konstantinos, Arana-Catania, Miguel, Upadhyay, Saurabh, Felicetti, Leonard
This paper discusses an approach to inertial parameter estimation for the case of cargo carrying spacecraft that is based on causal learning, i.e. learning from the responses of the spacecraft, under actuation. Different spacecraft configurations (inertial parameter sets) are simulated under different actuation profiles, in order to produce an optimised time-series clustering classifier that can be used to distinguish between them. The actuation is comprised of finite sequences of constant inputs that are applied in order, based on typical actuators available. By learning from the system's responses across multiple input sequences, and then applying measures of time-series similarity and F1-score, an optimal actuation sequence can be chosen either for one specific system configuration or for the overall set of possible configurations. This allows for both estimation of the inertial parameter set without any prior knowledge of state, as well as validation of transitions between different configurations after a deployment event. The optimisation of the actuation sequence is handled by a reinforcement learning model that uses the proximal policy optimisation (PPO) algorithm, by repeatedly trying different sequences and evaluating the impact on classifier performance according to a multi-objective metric.
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Towards Safer Planetary Exploration: A Hybrid Architecture for Terrain Traversability Analysis in Mars Rovers
Chiuchiarelli, Achille, Franchini, Giacomo, Messina, Francesco, Chiaberge, Marcello
The field of autonomous navigation for unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) is in continuous growth and increasing levels of autonomy have been reached in the last few years. However, the task becomes more challenging when the focus is on the exploration of planet surfaces such as Mars. In those situations, UGVs are forced to navigate through unstable and rugged terrains which, inevitably, open the vehicle to more hazards, accidents, and, in extreme cases, complete mission failure. The paper addresses the challenges of autonomous navigation for unmanned ground vehicles in planetary exploration, particularly on Mars, introducing a hybrid architecture for terrain traversability analysis that combines two approaches: appearance-based and geometry-based. The appearance-based method uses semantic segmentation via deep neural networks to classify different terrain types. This is further refined by pixel-level terrain roughness classification obtained from the same RGB image, assigning different costs based on the physical properties of the soil. The geometry-based method complements the appearance-based approach by evaluating the terrain's geometrical features, identifying hazards that may not be detectable by the appearance-based side. The outputs of both methods are combined into a comprehensive hybrid cost map. The proposed architecture was trained on synthetic datasets and developed as a ROS2 application to integrate into broader autonomous navigation systems for harsh environments. Simulations have been performed in Unity, showing the ability of the method to assess online traversability analysis.
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Certifying Guidance & Control Networks: Uncertainty Propagation to an Event Manifold
Origer, Sebastien, Izzo, Dario, Acciarini, Giacomo, Biscani, Francesco, Mastroianni, Rita, Bannach, Max, Holt, Harry
We perform uncertainty propagation on an event manifold for Guidance & Control Networks (G&CNETs), aiming to enhance the certification tools for neural networks in this field. This work utilizes three previously solved optimal control problems with varying levels of dynamics nonlinearity and event manifold complexity. The G&CNETs are trained to represent the optimal control policies of a time-optimal interplanetary transfer, a mass-optimal landing on an asteroid and energy-optimal drone racing, respectively. For each of these problems, we describe analytically the terminal conditions on an event manifold with respect to initial state uncertainties. Crucially, this expansion does not depend on time but solely on the initial conditions of the system, thereby making it possible to study the robustness of the G&CNET at any specific stage of a mission defined by the event manifold. Once this analytical expression is found, we provide confidence bounds by applying the Cauchy-Hadamard theorem and perform uncertainty propagation using moment generating functions. While Monte Carlo-based (MC) methods can yield the results we present, this work is driven by the recognition that MC simulations alone may be insufficient for future certification of neural networks in guidance and control applications.
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Daedalus 2: Autorotation Entry, Descent and Landing Experiment on REXUS29
Bergmann, Philip, Riegler, Clemens, Klaschka, Zuri, Herbst, Tobias, Wolf, Jan M., Reigl, Maximilian, Koch, Niels, Menninger, Sarah, von Pichowski, Jan, Bös, Cedric, Barthó, Bence, Dunschen, Frederik, Mehringer, Johanna, Richter, Ludwig, Werner, Lennart
In recent years, interplanetary exploration has gained significant momentum, leading to a focus on the development of launch vehicles. However, the critical technology of edl mechanisms has not received the same level of attention and remains less mature and capable. To address this gap, we took advantage of the REXUS program to develop a pioneering edl mechanism. We propose an alternative to conventional, parachute based landing vehicles by utilizing autorotation. Our approach enables future additions such as steerability, controllability, and the possibility of a soft landing. To validate the technique and our specific implementation, we conducted a sounding rocket experiment on REXUS29. The systems design is outlined with relevant design decisions and constraints, covering software, mechanics, electronics and control systems. Furthermore, an emphasis will also be the organization and setup of the team entirely made up and executed by students. The flight results on REXUS itself are presented, including the most important outcomes and possible reasons for mission failure. We have not archived an autorotation based landing, but provide a reliable way of building and operating such vehicles. Ultimately, future works and possibilities for improvements are outlined. The research presented in this paper highlights the need for continued exploration and development of edl mechanisms for future interplanetary missions. By discussing our results, we hope to inspire further research in this area and contribute to the advancement of space exploration technology.
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Fast Fourier Convolution Based Remote Sensor Image Object Detection for Earth Observation
Lingyun, Gu, Popov, Eugene, Ge, Dong
Remote sensor image object detection is an important technology for Earth observation, and is used in various tasks such as forest fire monitoring and ocean monitoring. Image object detection technology, despite the significant developments, is struggling to handle remote sensor images and small-scale objects, due to the limited pixels of small objects. Numerous existing studies have demonstrated that an effective way to promote small object detection is to introduce the spatial context. Meanwhile, recent researches for image classification have shown that spectral convolution operations can perceive long-term spatial dependence more efficiently in the frequency domain than spatial domain. Inspired by this observation, we propose a Frequency-aware Feature Pyramid Framework (FFPF) for remote sensing object detection, which consists of a novel Frequency-aware ResNet (F-ResNet) and a Bilateral Spectral-aware Feature Pyramid Network (BS-FPN). Specifically, the F-ResNet is proposed to perceive the spectral context information by plugging the frequency domain convolution into each stage of the backbone, extracting richer features of small objects. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to introduce frequency-domain convolution into remote sensing object detection task. In addition, the BSFPN is designed to use a bilateral sampling strategy and skipping connection to better model the association of object features at different scales, towards unleashing the potential of the spectral context information from F-ResNet. Extensive experiments are conducted for object detection in the optical remote sensing image dataset (DIOR and DOTA). The experimental results demonstrate the excellent performance of our method. It achieves an average accuracy (mAP) without any tricks.
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